Spain votes on 29 November: Pedro Sánchez, the court cases around him, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the polls and the live prediction-market odds.
How Pedro Sánchez kept power after losing the 2023 vote, the amnesty he had ruled out, the court cases around him and what traders expect on 29 November.
Read the full story →Prediction markets · Spain’s 29 November election
Implied chances from traders’ prices on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Who becomes Spain's next prime minister
Polymarket: US$2.1 million traded.
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC), prime minister after the next election: Alberto Núñez Feijóo 78% · Pedro Sánchez 19% · Santiago Abascal 3% (22,455 contracts traded).
Which party wins the most seats on 29 November
Polymarket: US$163,000 traded.
Pedro Sánchez out as prime minister by...
Polymarket: US$899,000 traded. The January contracts do not count time as acting prime minister, and a successor can take office only after the new Congress meets on 23 December.
As of 23 October, 5:04 p.m. ET (22:04 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.