Key Facts
- Brazil tariff shield A 25% tariff on steel imports above quotas across 19 product categories remains in force through June 2027.
- Import penetration reality Brazil’s steel-import penetration reached 22.5% in the first half of 2026, even as import volumes fell 17.6% year on year.
- Chinese supply dominance Chinese mills supplied 45.4% of Latin America’s steel imports in 2025, and imports met about 40% of regional demand, according to steel association Alacero.
- Gerdau construction exposure Gerdau, more tied to long steel and construction, closed up on Friday even as the sector faced soft demand.
- Flat steel pressure CSN and Usiminas, which lean toward flat steel for autos and appliances, remain exposed to cheap import competition.
- Mexico tariff wall Mexico applies tariffs of up to 50% on 1,463 tariff lines from countries without free-trade agreements, including steel.
Today’s Focus
Latin American steel shares ended Friday 25 September 2026 in a cautious, mixed pattern. Gerdau’s New York shares rose 1.25% to US$4.85, while Ternium slipped 0.31% to US$55.36 and CSN’s American depositary receipt held unchanged at US$1.10. The steel-producers ETF, SLX, was effectively flat, down 0.03% at US$104.80.
The session reflected a market still balancing tariff protection against cheap Chinese supply and uneven construction demand. Investors were focused on long-steel weakness linked to building activity and flat-steel pressure from imports, with no fresh demand catalyst strong enough to lift the group.
For foreign investors, the story is structural: Latin America offers tariff-shielded domestic producers, but import penetration remains high and Chinese mills keep regional prices under pressure. The direction of construction and auto demand through the fourth quarter is the variable that matters most.
What matters today. Tariff protection is real but has not yet broken the grip of cheap Chinese steel on regional prices.
01 The session in one read
Latin American steel shares delivered a mixed, low-energy close on Friday 25 September 2026. Gerdau’s New York-listed shares climbed 1.25% to US$4.85, making it the best performer on the board.
Ternium slipped 0.31% to US$55.36, while CSN’s American depositary receipt closed flat at US$1.10. The steel-producers ETF, SLX, was barely changed, down 0.03% at US$104.80.
The Friday session offered no decisive break in the Latin American steel narrative. Gerdau’s gain showed selective support for long-steel names, while Ternium’s dip and CSN’s flat close underscored persistent import and demand concerns.
Watch whether Brazil’s fourth-quarter construction data can lift long-steel volumes enough to offset continued Chinese supply.
02 The board
The price board told a story of rotation rather than broad conviction. Gerdau’s advance contrasted with Ternium’s small decline, even though both names face the same Chinese import threat and soft regional construction backdrop.
The SLX ETF’s near-flat close showed that global steel investors saw little new information in the Latin American tape. Whatever moved individual shares was company-specific or noise, not a sector-wide repricing.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Steel (SLX ETF) | US$104.80 | -0.03% |
| Gerdau | US$4.85 | +1.25% |
| CSN (ADR) | US$1.10 | 0.00% |
| Ternium | US$55.36 | -0.31% |
Source: RT live market data, close of Friday 25 September 2026. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 204,120.12 | -1.15% | +21.85% | 206,495.23 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 10,776.60 | -0.03% | — | 10,780.31 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 69,889.73 | -0.51% | +12.17% | 70,249.54 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,017,221 | — | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,528.42 | -1.25% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,561.23 | -4.26% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
Live Company IntelligenceGerdau S.A — the full investor dossier
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03 What moved it
Cheap Chinese steel remains the dominant drag. Brazil’s import penetration reached 22.5% in the first half of 2026, even as import volumes fell 17.6% year on year. Chinese mills supplied 45.4% of Latin America’s steel imports in 2025, according to Alacero.
Brazil’s response has been a 25% tariff on steel imports above quotas across 19 product categories, extended through June 2027. In Mexico, tariffs of up to 50% cover 1,463 tariff lines from countries without free-trade agreements, including steel.
Demand is uneven. Long steel, tied to construction, has weakened, while flat steel used in autos, machinery and appliances faces pressure from imports. Gerdau is more exposed to long steel; CSN and Usiminas lean toward flat steel, which keeps their margins more vulnerable to foreign supply.
04 The Latin American read
For Brazil, the tariff shield helped cut import volumes in the first half, yet imports still met 22.5% of domestic demand. That limits how much domestic mills can raise prices even when local demand improves.
For Mexico, Ternium’s exposure to auto demand and nearshoring-related factory construction provides a structural floor, but Friday’s slight decline shows it is not enough to offset Chinese supply pressure. Foreign investors should read the session as a market waiting for volume recovery rather than pricing one in.
05 The names to watch
Gerdau is the clearest long-steel and construction proxy; its gain on Friday suggests some investors see value in that end-market. CSN and Usiminas, which trade mainly as flat-steel producers, remain the most exposed to import competition.
Ternium is the diversified Mexico play, benefiting from auto and industrial demand but still fighting the same Asian import wave. The SLX ETF offers a broader global benchmark, and its flat close shows Latin America is not yet a leadership story within world steel.
06 The outlook
The next move depends on demand data more than tariffs. Fourth-quarter construction orders in Brazil will test whether long-steel volumes can recover, while Mexican auto production and nearshoring investment will set the tone for flat steel.
The tariff regime is known and largely priced in; what is not priced in is any sustained decline in Chinese export volumes to Latin America. Until that changes, expect the current mixed pattern to persist.
07 What to watch
- Brazil construction demand: Long-steel volumes hinge on building activity; a fourth-quarter recovery would support Gerdau and lift sector sentiment.
- Chinese export volumes: Any sustained drop in Chinese shipments to Latin America would ease import penetration and support domestic pricing.
- Mexican auto output: Ternium’s flat-steel demand depends on auto production and nearshoring-related factory construction staying firm.
- Tariff enforcement: Brazil’s quota-based 25% tariff runs through June 2027; changes to quota levels or coverage would move domestic mills.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Gerdau rise while Ternium slipped?
Gerdau’s gain likely reflected selective buying of long-steel exposure, while Ternium faced continued pressure from Chinese supply despite supportive Mexican auto demand.
How big is cheap import pressure in Brazil?
Brazil’s steel-import penetration reached 22.5% in the first half of 2026, and Chinese mills supplied 45.4% of Latin America’s steel imports in 2025, according to Alacero.
What tariff protection exists?
Brazil applies a 25% tariff on steel imports above quotas across 19 product categories through June 2027, while Mexico has tariffs of up to 50% on 1,463 tariff lines from countries without free-trade agreements, including steel.
What is the difference between long and flat steel?
Long steel is used mainly in construction, where Gerdau is more exposed; flat steel goes into autos, machinery and appliances, with CSN and Usiminas more tied to that segment.
Market data: RT live market data
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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