Key Facts
- Expected decision. Selic hold at 13.75%, announced Wednesday 4 November 2026 at about 4:30 p.m. ET.
- Prediction markets. Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, gave no change 88.8% and a quarter-point cut 11.0%, as of 1:12 a.m. ET.
- Cutting cycle. Five quarter-point cuts since March took the Selic from 15% to 13.75%.
- Election shock. President Lula won re-election on 25 October with about 51.8%; Brazil’s main stock index fell 13.88% the next day.
- Betting ban. The first 60-day review period for the betting ban ends on 23 November.
- Power Index. Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Brazil’s central bank is expected to hold its Selic rate at 13.75% on Wednesday 4 November, with the decision due at about 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time (ET).
In Plain English
- Selic: The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, which the central bank sets to steer inflation.
- Copom: The Copom is the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, which votes on the Selic.
- STF: The STF, or Supremo Tribunal Federal, is Brazil’s Supreme Court, which is reviewing the betting ban.
Why Brazil’s Central Bank Is Expected to Hold Rates at 13.75%
Brazil’s central bank is expected to hold its Selic benchmark rate at 13.75% when it announces its decision on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at about 4:30 p.m. ET. The Selic is the rate the bank sets to steer inflation, and the committee has not yet voted.
The Copom, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, has cut five times by 0.25 point since March, taking the rate down from 15%. A quarter-point cut is the main alternative to a hold.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a left-wing leader, won re-election on 25 October with about 51.8% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil’s main stock index, the Ibovespa, fell 13.88% the next day, according to RT data.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market where users bet real money, showed 88.8% for no change in Brazil’s rate at the November meeting and 11.0% for a quarter-point cut. About US$154,919 had been traded on that market as of 1:12 a.m. ET on 4 November.
For the December meeting, the same platform showed 63.5% for no change and 23.5% for a quarter-point cut, with small odds on larger moves. These prices are bets, not polls or forecasts by the central bank.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+1.23%
167,563.47
+1.23%
71,385.90
+1.71%
10,627.00
+2.52%
2,848,945
—
2,506.42
-0.84%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 167,563.47 | +1.23% | +19.56% | 165,528.92 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 53.31 | -1.06% | +77.70% | 53.88 | 53.70 | 52.83 | 43,239,500 |
| VALE3 | 62.88 | -2.33% | +1.98% | 64.38 | 64.43 | 62.80 | 24,652,300 |
| ITUB4 | 41.42 | -0.67% | +11.30% | 41.70 | 42.60 | 41.15 | 28,160,700 |
| BBDC4 | 15.69 | -1.63% | -13.88% | 15.95 | 16.30 | 15.67 | 65,766,400 |
| BBAS3 | 17.59 | +0.69% | -15.59% | 17.47 | 18.31 | 17.51 | 67,844,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.27 | +1.33% | +21.71% | 15.07 | 15.78 | 15.20 | 75,282,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.40 | +0.20% | +26.75% | 15.37 | 15.68 | 15.31 | 27,307,400 |
| WEGE3 | 45.78 | +2.81% | +10.06% | 44.53 | 47.08 | 45.06 | 9,823,200 |
| PRIO3 | 69.21 | -2.71% | +87.14% | 71.14 | 70.98 | 69.15 | 6,663,200 |
| SUZB3 | 47.14 | -0.55% | -3.79% | 47.40 | 47.84 | 46.10 | 7,151,800 |
| RENT3 | 31.14 | -1.67% | -20.73% | 31.67 | 32.68 | 31.02 | 19,092,400 |
| AZZA3 | 16.72 | +1.15% | -42.24% | 16.53 | 17.42 | 16.72 | 4,875,400 |
| CSNA3 | 4.76 | -4.99% | -47.09% | 5.01 | 5.14 | 4.76 | 14,327,900 |
| GGBR4 | 24.87 | -2.28% | +36.28% | 25.45 | 26.20 | 24.79 | 7,507,900 |
| ENEV3 | 26.79 | +0.45% | +49.78% | 26.67 | 27.35 | 26.30 | 12,263,000 |
Why Brazil’s Betting Ban Is Being Fought in the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court (STF) held a public hearing on 3 November on Provisional Measure 1.394, a decree with the force of law that bans fixed-odds betting, meaning bets at odds set in advance. Justice Luiz Fux, who handles the challenges to the ban, led the hearing.
Lula’s government published the measure on 25 September. The National Congress’s first 60-day period to review it ends on 23 November, and the period can be extended, while a locked legislative agenda begins on 9 November.
Dozens of speakers took part, including football clubs. Flamengo’s president, Luiz Eduardo Baptista, known as Bap, estimated losses of up to R$430 million in 2027 (about US$78 million at R$5.49 per US$, the 3 November close from RT, a market-data provider).
What Links These Stories
Both stories test how far politics and the courts will steer the economy after Lula’s re-election. A central bank under pressure and a betting ban under challenge each ask whether policy follows markets or politics.
Savers and the central bank gain from a hold, while borrowers and the government’s debt bill lose. Football clubs and betting operators lose from the ban, while the ministries and groups that back it gain.
The reports behind this Big Read
What It Means for US Readers
Holders of Brazilian ADRs, which are US-listed shares, and of real-denominated bonds should watch the wording of the statement more than the rate itself. Travellers face no change, because none of these decisions alters visas, flights or entry rules.
What to Watch Next
The Copom announces its decision on Wednesday 4 November at about 4:30 p.m. ET, and publishes its minutes on Tuesday 10 November. Congress’s urgency regime on the betting ban starts on Monday 9 November, and the first 60-day review period ends on 23 November.
What Is Not Known
The Copom’s vote split and the tone of its statement are unknown until the announcement. The Supreme Court has not set a date for a ruling on the betting ban.
Sources
Banco Central do Brasil, Copom · Supreme Federal Court (STF) · Brazilian Chamber of Deputies · Superior Electoral Court (TSE) · Polymarket: Bank of Brazil decision in November
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff date. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Brazil’s central bank expected to do on 4 November?
It is expected to hold the Selic at 13.75%, announcing at about 4:30 p.m. ET. Polymarket gave no change 88.8% on 4 November, but the committee has not voted.
What is happening with Brazil’s betting ban?
Provisional Measure 1.394 bans fixed-odds betting. The Supreme Court held a public hearing on 3 November, and Congress’s first 60-day review period ends on 23 November.
When will the Copom publish its minutes?
The minutes of the 3 and 4 November meeting are due on Tuesday 10 November, according to the central bank’s calendar.