West Africa Cocoa Crop Set to Shrink as El Nino and Disease Bite
IVORY COAST · COMMODITIES
Key Facts
—Ivory Coast: Trade surveys carried by Barchart on 31 August point to about 1.8 million tonnes in the season starting on 1 October, down roughly 18% on their 2025/26 base. Ivorian port arrivals for 2025/26 ran near 2.1 million tonnes.
—Ghana: The Ghana Cocoa Board estimates 650,000 tonnes for 2026/27, down 13% from 750,000 tonnes this season.
—Combined weight: The two countries together account for more than half of world supply.
—The weather: El Niño conditions were confirmed on 10 June 2026 by the Japan Meteorological Agency, with the Niño 3.4 index at plus 1.7 degrees Celsius by mid-June.
—The peak: Forecasters put the peak in the northern autumn and winter, with a 69% chance the event tops plus 2.5 degrees Celsius between October and December.
—The diseases: Growers are contending with black pod, swollen shoot and ageing trees.
—The immediate cause: Heavy rain and limited sunshine have cut pod development and made fungal infection harder to control.
—The catch: Both crop numbers are forecasts made before the season opens on 1 October, and the Ivorian main crop is already running weeks late.
The West Africa cocoa harvest that opens on 1 October is expected to come in sharply smaller, with Ivory Coast down about 18% on trade surveys and Ghana down about 13% on its own board’s estimate. Disease, poor pod development and a strengthening El Niño are all pulling in the same direction.
What the West Africa cocoa harvest numbers say
Early crop surveys in Ivory Coast point to roughly 1.8 million tonnes for the season starting on 1 October. That compares with about 2.2 million tonnes in 2025/26, a fall of some 18%.
Ghana’s Cocoa Board puts its own estimate at 650,000 tonnes for 2026/27, against 750,000 this season. Bloomberg reported the Ghanaian figure on 20 August, and the Ivorian survey number was carried by Barchart on 31 August.
Together the two countries supply more than half the world’s cocoa. A double-digit fall in both at once is not a regional story.
Three problems arriving together
Black pod is a fungal disease that rots the pod on the tree. It thrives in exactly the wet, sunless conditions growers have had. Swollen shoot is a virus spread by mealybugs, and the only reliable treatment is cutting out the infected trees.
The third problem is age. Large parts of the West African cocoa belt were planted decades ago, and yields decline as trees pass their productive peak.
Weather then compounds all three. Heavy rain with limited sunshine slows pod development and makes it harder to apply fungicide at the right moment.
Why El Niño worries cocoa traders
El Niño conditions were confirmed on 10 June 2026 by the Japan Meteorological Agency. America’s Climate Prediction Center put the Niño 3.4 index at plus 1.4 degrees Celsius in July and has an El Niño advisory in force. Model ensembles place the peak between September and November.
For West Africa the pattern typically brings warmer and drier conditions. That reduces soil moisture at the point in the calendar when pods are filling.
The sequence is what makes it awkward. A wet, cloudy period that encourages fungus, followed by a dry one that starves the pods, is close to a worst case.
The farmgate price is the political question
Ivory Coast has held its farmgate price well below the world market, at what amounts to a substantial discount for its roughly one million cocoa farmers. Ghana faces the same trade-off between supporting growers and protecting the marketing board’s finances.
A smaller crop makes that arithmetic worse. Fixed costs are spread across fewer tonnes, and the temptation to widen the gap grows.
Farmers respond to the gap in predictable ways. Beans move across borders to whichever side is paying more, which distorts both countries’ official numbers.
What it means for buyers
Chocolate manufacturers have already absorbed several years of higher input costs, and hedging only defers the problem. Another short crop pushes the reckoning into 2027 contracts.
Origin diversification is under way but slow. Ecuador and Brazil have expanded, and Nigeria has drawn development finance into the sector, yet none of it replaces West African volume quickly.
Trees take years. That is the whole difficulty with a supply response in cocoa.
Where the shortfall shows up first
Grinding data is the earliest reliable signal, because processors report volumes before farmgate numbers are consolidated. A fall there confirms that beans are genuinely scarce rather than merely delayed.
Port arrivals in Abidjan and San Pedro come next, week by week through the main crop. Traders watch the cumulative line against the same point in previous seasons.
Quality is the quieter variable. Disease-affected beans fetch discounts, so a stated tonnage can overstate the usable crop.
The regional economics
Cocoa is a first-order export earner for both countries, and a shortfall lands on foreign exchange as well as on farm incomes. Ghana has the partial cushion of a strong gold year.
Ivory Coast is less diversified in soft commodities and more exposed to the single crop. The wider economy has been growing near 6%, which absorbs some of the shock.
What to watch next
Watch the main-crop arrivals data at the Ivorian ports through October and November, which is the first hard read on the surveys.
Watch the farmgate announcements too. Any widening of the gap to the world price would tell you how bad the boards think it is.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How much smaller will the West Africa cocoa harvest be?
Ivory Coast is expected to produce about 1.8 million tonnes, down roughly 18% from 2.2 million. Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimates 650,000 tonnes, down 13% from 750,000.
What diseases are affecting the crop?
Black pod, a fungal disease, and swollen shoot, a virus spread by mealybugs. Ageing trees are a third and separate problem.
Is El Niño confirmed for 2026?
Yes. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed El Niño conditions on 10 June 2026, and models place the peak between September and November.
Why does this matter for chocolate prices?
Ivory Coast and Ghana together supply more than half of world cocoa. A double-digit fall in both feeds through to manufacturers’ input costs.
Connected Coverage
The commodity contest running through the continent is our standing beat at Africa: The New Scramble, with the regional file at Western Africa. See also Ivory Coast holding its cocoa price at a 57% discount and the two countries’ joint pricing effort.
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