Global Economy Briefing for Tuesday Morning
Read about Global Economy Briefing for Tuesday Morning on The Rio Times.
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\nEurozone industrial production fell −1.4% MoM in December, the steepest drop since April 2025. Capital goods led the decline at −1.9%. Germany posted a brutal −2.9% monthly loss while the YoY reading slowed to 1.2% from 2.2% — a sharp deceleration heading into 2026.
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\nIndia’s trade deficit surged to $34.68B in January — the widest since October’s $41.68B record — as imports jumped 19.2% YoY to $71.24B driven by gold and silver purchases. Exports barely grew at +0.6%, signalling persistent structural imbalance.
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\nBundesbank President Nagel used his Munich Security Conference-adjacent speech to advocate for euro-denominated stablecoins and a digital euro, warning that USD-pegged stablecoins controlling 99% of the market risk “digital dollarisation” that could impair ECB monetary policy.
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| INDICATOR | ACT | EST | PREV | VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EZ Industrial Production MoM (Dec) | −1.4% | −1.5% | 0.3% | MARGINAL BEAT |
| EZ Industrial Production YoY (Dec) | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | AS EXPECTED |
| India Trade Balance (Jan) | −$34.68B | −$26.14B | −$25.04B | BLOWOUT MISS |
| India Exports (Jan) | $36.56B | — | $38.51B | WEAK |
| India Imports (Jan) | $71.24B | — | $63.55B | SURGE |
| India WPI Inflation YoY (Jan) | 1.81% | 1.25% | 0.83% | HOT |
| India WPI Food YoY (Jan) | 1.41% | — | −0.43% | REVERSAL |
| India WPI Fuel YoY (Jan) | −4.01% | — | −2.31% | DEFLATION |
| India WPI Mfg Inflation YoY (Jan) | 2.86% | — | 1.82% | ACCELERATING |
| German 12-Month Bubill Auction | 1.985% | — | 2.004% | DRIFTING LOWER |
| French 12-Month BTF Auction | 2.040% | — | 2.038% | STEADY |
| French 3-Month BTF Auction | 2.004% | — | 2.004% | FLAT |
| French 6-Month BTF Auction | 2.026% | — | 2.031% | STEADY |
| Colombia GDP YoY (Q4) | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | MISS |
| Colombia GDP QoQ (Q4) | 0.1% | — | 1.3% | STALL |
| ECB Reserve Assets Total | €1,987B | — | €1,776B | +11.9% |
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Europe
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Eurozone factory slump returns, Nagel goes digital
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Eurostat confirmed that euro-area industrial production fell −1.4% MoM in December, snapping a three-month streak of gains. The reading was marginally better than the −1.5% consensus but reversed November’s 0.3% increase. Capital goods output plunged −1.9%, with energy down −0.3% and non-durable consumer goods off −0.3%.
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.
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Germany was the standout laggard at −2.9% monthly, followed by Spain at −2.6% and Slovakia at −4.9%. On an annual basis, output growth slowed sharply to 1.2% from 2.2% in November. For 2025 as a whole, the euro area managed a 1.5% annual gain — modest, but a meaningful improvement from the deep manufacturing recession of 2023-24.
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Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel delivered a significant speech at the American Chamber of Commerce in Frankfurt, warning of “digital dollarisation” as USD-pegged stablecoins dominate 99% of the global stablecoin market. Nagel endorsed euro-denominated stablecoins alongside the ECB’s digital euro project as tools to preserve European monetary sovereignty.
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In the bond market, Germany auctioned 12-month Bubills at 1.985%, marginally below the prior 2.004%, continuing the gentle drift lower in short-end euro-area rates. French BTF auctions cleared at tight levels across the curve: 2.040% at 12 months, 2.026% at six months, and 2.004% at three months — all essentially flat with prior. The Stoxx 600 edged up 0.1% in thin trade with US markets closed for Presidents’ Day.
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Separately, the Eurogroup held meetings in Brussels on Monday, while the German Bundesbank published its monthly report. ECB reserve assets rose to €1,987B from €1,776B, a 11.9% jump driven largely by gold revaluation effects.
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\nVerdict
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The December IP data confirms the Eurozone’s manufacturing recovery is fragile and uneven. The 2025 full-year gain of 1.5% flatters a trajectory that lost momentum sharply in Q4. Nagel’s stablecoin push signals Europe is taking the digital payments sovereignty battle seriously — watch for ECB digital euro legislative progress in H1.
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United States
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Markets dark for Presidents’ Day, Bowman talks mortgages
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US equity and bond markets were closed Monday for Presidents’ Day (Washington’s Birthday). No economic data was released. The S&P 500 closed the prior session at around 6,917, with the Dow near 50,136 and the Nasdaq at 23,248.
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Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman spoke at the ABA Conference for Community Bankers in Orlando, focusing on the decline of bank mortgage lending. Bowman signalled the Fed will propose changes to the regulatory capital framework to incentivise banks to re-enter mortgage origination and servicing, noting banks’ share of originations has fallen from 60% in 2008 to a fraction today.
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On monetary policy, Bowman has previously indicated she sees three rate cuts in 2026, with the fed funds rate currently at 3.50%–3.75%. However, Monday’s remarks were narrowly focused on bank regulation rather than the rate outlook. Markets continue to price the first cut no earlier than June.
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\nVerdict
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Quiet session with markets closed. Bowman’s mortgage capital proposal could be meaningful for banks’ ROE on servicing portfolios if it materialises. The real action for US markets resumes Tuesday with housing data and a full week of earnings ahead.
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Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,152 | +2.91% | +25.99% | 4,035 | 4,171 | 4,152 | 3,841 |
| SILVER | 59.17 | +2.26% | +57.51% | 57.86 | 59.41 | 59.17 | 427 |
| BRENT | 89.39 | -1.49% | +22.05% | 90.74 | 89.79 | 89.38 | 70 |
| WTI | 84.12 | -0.40% | +20.17% | 84.46 | 84.32 | 83.87 | 2,329 |
| COPPER | 6.50 | +3.63% | +16.71% | 6.27 | 6.51 | 6.50 | 940 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +63.43% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| BTC | 64,735 | +1.29% | -44.07% | 63,908 | 64,814 | 64,700 | 26,202,638,336 |
| ETH | 1,916 | +0.39% | -48.16% | 1,909 | 1,920 | 1,915 | 8,177,606,656 |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.91% | -9.05% | 5.12 | 5.07 | 5.07 | — |
Asia-Pacific
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India’s trade gap surges, WPI inflation hits 10-month high
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India dominated Monday’s data flow. The merchandise trade deficit ballooned to $34.68 billion in January, far exceeding the $26.14B consensus and up from $25.04B in December. Imports surged 19.2% YoY to $71.24B, driven by gold and silver purchases, while merchandise exports barely moved at $36.56B — up just 0.6% annually.
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The deficit is the widest since October’s record $41.68B and comes weeks after India struck an interim US tariff deal reducing duties from 50% to 18%. Commerce Secretary Agrawal expressed confidence that total goods and services exports will cross $860B this fiscal year. The services sector remains the bright spot, with exports rising to $43.9B in January.
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Meanwhile, wholesale price inflation jumped to a 10-month high of 1.81% in January from 0.83% in December, well above the 1.25% consensus. Manufacturing WPI accelerated to 2.86% from 1.82%, with 19 of 22 manufacturing subgroups showing price increases — basic metals surged 5.82% MoM. Food WPI reversed from deflation of −0.43% to +1.41%. Fuel remained in deflation at −4.01%.
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China and South Korea were both closed for holidays — Chinese New Year and Korean New Year respectively. Markets across the region traded cautiously with the US also shut.
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\nVerdict
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India’s trade data is a warning signal. The deficit widening despite a new US tariff deal suggests the gold import channel is distorting the balance sheet. WPI acceleration adds complexity for the RBI, which has cut rates 125bps in 2025-26. Services are carrying the export story — merchandise is stalling.
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Latin America
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Colombia GDP disappoints, Carnival shuts the region
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Colombia’s Q4 GDP came in at 2.3% YoY, well below the 3.1% consensus and decelerating from 3.6% in Q3. The QoQ reading was just 0.1%, a near-stall after 1.3% sequential growth in Q3. Full-year 2025 GDP landed at 2.6%, a clear improvement from 2024’s 1.5% but still reliant on consumption rather than investment.
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The composition is concerning. Public spending grew 7.1% — the state is doing the heavy lifting. Mining contracted −6.2% and construction fell −2.8% for its third consecutive annual decline. Machinery investment rebounded 9.0%, but construction investment dropped −4.4%. Furthermore, imports grew 8.4% versus just 1.8% for exports, pointing to a demand-led recovery with rising import leakage.
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Most of the region was shut for holidays. Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, and Ecuador were all closed for Carnival celebrations. Canada was closed for Family Day, limiting North American cross-border flow. The Brazilian Central Bank’s Focus Market Readout was published but without new policy signals.
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\nVerdict
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Colombia’s GDP miss is a red flag for the recovery narrative. The Q4 sequential stall (0.1% QoQ) suggests fiscal-led growth is running out of steam while private investment remains subdued. With elections looming and a 23.7% minimum wage hike in dispute, policy uncertainty will weigh on the outlook.
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Related: Latin American Pulse | Brazil Morning Call
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