Latin American Pulse for Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Executive Summary
Read about Latin American Pulse for Tuesday, February 17, 2026 on The Rio Times.
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Milei Flies to Washington for Board of Peace as Argentina Braces for Thursday’s General Strike; Cuba Satellite Data Reveals 50% Light Loss; Venezuela Hunger Strikers Weaken on Day Four
This is part of The Rio Times’ comprehensive coverage of Latin American financial markets and economic developments.
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Executive Summary
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The Big Picture: Argentina’s President Milei will fly to Washington on Wednesday to attend the inaugural meeting of Donald Trump’s Board of Peace on Thursday—the same day the CGT’s 24-hour general strike is set to paralyze the country and the Chamber of Deputies debates his labor reform bill. The collision of diplomacy abroad and confrontation at home frames the most consequential 48 hours of Milei’s presidency: he will be seated beside leaders from 26 nations while Buenos Aires shuts down. The government confirmed Argentina will not pay the $1 billion Board of Peace membership fee but views the trip as a strategic alignment signal ahead of the March 7 Latin American presidents’ summit Trump is organizing in Miami and “Argentina Week” on Wall Street later that month.
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Bloomberg’s satellite analysis of Cuba’s nighttime light emissions—published Sunday—quantified what residents already knew: eastern cities including Santiago de Cuba and Holguín have lost up to 50% of nighttime illumination since the oil cutoff began in January. Havana fares better, partly because wealthier residents have imported solar panels and battery systems. The disparity confirms a two-speed crisis: the capital retains some capacity while provincial Cuba goes dark. Spanish economist Marc Vidal publicly stated on Monday that the regime faces “the most significant structural break in decades” and may not survive in its current form. Meanwhile, Díaz-Canel acknowledged that blackouts have intensified in Havana itself as the government prioritizes electricity for economic activity over residential consumption.
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In Venezuela, the hunger strikers outside Zona 7 entered their fourth day on Tuesday, visibly weakening. A volunteer doctor was denied access to examine prisoners inside. The amnesty bill debate resumes Wednesday in the National Assembly—making February 19 a triple convergence: Argentina’s strike, Venezuela’s amnesty vote, and the FOMC minutes release. For investors managing positions frozen by this week’s triple holiday lockdown (NYSE dark Monday for Presidents’ Day, B3 and BYMA dark Monday-Tuesday for Carnival), Wednesday’s reopening could deliver concentrated volatility across all three catalysts.
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Regional Mood
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Carnival silence masks a loaded calendar. Argentina is on holiday through Tuesday but the political machinery is running: committee markups are expected Wednesday, floor vote Thursday. Cuba’s satellite data transformed anecdotal reports into hard evidence of grid collapse. Venezuela’s hunger strike is testing the Rodriguez government’s credibility ahead of the amnesty vote. Colombia’s flood emergency continues with the Urrá reservoir still above overflow level. Markets reopen into a minefield.
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Risk Snapshot
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| Country | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Milei to Washington for Board of Peace Thu; CGT general strike same day; Deputies labor reform vote; $LIBRA anniversary protests | HIGH |
| Cuba | Bloomberg satellite data: 50% nighttime light loss in east; regime analyst predicts “structural break”; Díaz-Canel rations Havana power | CRITICAL |
| Venezuela | Hunger strike Day 4; strikers weakening; amnesty debate resumes Wed; 600+ political prisoners remain | HIGH |
| Colombia | Floods persist: 44 dead, 72K+ families; Urrá above overflow; $2.2B emergency tax; Ecuador trade war week 3 | HIGH |
| Mexico | 40-hr workweek in Deputies committees; plenary vote ~Feb 24–25; USMCA review begins July 1 | WATCH |
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Argentina
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Milei Heads to Board of Peace While Buenos Aires Prepares for Shutdown
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What Happened
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- —Board of Peace Trip Confirmed: Milei will depart Buenos Aires Wednesday and arrive in Washington Thursday morning for the inaugural Board of Peace summit alongside leaders from 26 other nations. Argentina will not pay the $1 billion membership fee but joins as a founding member. The trip extends a diplomatic sprint: Milei will return to the U.S. on March 7 for Trump’s Latin American presidents’ summit in Miami and again in mid-March for “Argentina Week” on Wall Street, co-organized by J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, and Kaszek.
- —Strike Logistics Crystallize: The Buenos Aires Times reported Monday that air travel will be heavily disrupted at both Aeroparque and Ezeiza, with aviation unions, pilots, and ground staff all confirmed. The CATT transport confederation pledged total participation. Taxi and private car federations signaled support, compounding the shutdown. This represents a significant escalation over the April 2025 strike, when bus and rail unions partially sat out.
- —$LIBRA Anniversary: February 14 marked one year since Milei promoted the $LIBRA memecoin on X, triggering a $4.5 billion spike and 96% crash that left 44,000 investors with losses. The Buenos Aires Times reported that Argentina’s courts have still not summoned a single witness or suspect. The anniversary briefly trended on Argentine social media during the Carnival holiday, and opposition figures used it to underscore what they call a pattern of impunity under the current administration.
- —Carnival Holiday: Argentina observes Carnival on Monday Feb 16 and Tuesday Feb 17, creating a four-day long weekend. BYMA remains closed through Tuesday; Congress returns Wednesday for committee markups ahead of Thursday’s floor vote. The government targets approximately 129–131 votes in the 257-seat chamber.
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Why It Matters
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The optics of Thursday are extraordinary: Milei will be on stage in Washington at Trump’s signature multilateral initiative while the CGT shuts down the economy back home and Deputies decide the fate of Argentina’s deepest labor reform since the 1940s. Passage would validate the reform-and-align strategy Milei is selling to foreign investors; failure under the shadow of a full-transport strike would suggest the street still holds veto power. The $LIBRA anniversary landing during this window reminds markets that political risk in Argentina runs in multiple directions simultaneously.
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Key Watch
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Committee markup Wednesday. Floor vote Thursday. Strike participation breadth and whether aviation is fully grounded. Board of Peace optics in Washington. MERVAL reaction when BYMA reopens Wednesday. February CPI trajectory.
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Markets: MERVAL closed Friday Feb 13 at 2,816,127.94 (−1.25%). BYMA dark Monday–Tuesday for Carnival. Positions frozen through strike announcement and Board of Peace news.
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RISK: HIGH
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Cuba
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Satellite Data Quantifies Collapse: Eastern Cities Lose Half Their Light
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What Happened
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- —Bloomberg Satellite Analysis: A Bloomberg analysis of NASA satellite imagery published Sunday revealed that nighttime light intensity in major eastern cities has dropped up to 50% compared to historical averages since January. Santiago de Cuba and Holguín—the island’s second- and fourth-largest cities—are substantially darker. Havana shows a smaller decline, partly because wealthier residents have imported solar panels and battery backup systems. The disparity confirms a two-speed crisis: provincial Cuba is going dark while the capital retains partial capacity.
- —Regime Collapse Prediction: Spanish economist Marc Vidal stated Monday that Cuba is experiencing “the most significant structural break in decades” and that the regime may not survive in its current form. He emphasized that unlike previous crises, Cuba lacks any external patron capable of providing a lifeline—the Soviet Union, Venezuela, and now Mexico have all been removed from the equation. CiberCuba reported his analysis prominently.
- —Havana Prioritization Acknowledged: Díaz-Canel acknowledged that blackouts have intensified in Havana and other provinces because the government is prioritizing electricity for economic activity over residential consumption. This marks a shift from previous messaging that portrayed the crisis as uniformly distributed. The government continues to operate on contingency measures including a four-day state workweek, reduced public transport, and restricted gasoline sales.
- —Aeroflot Final Week: Aeroflot’s remaining Cuba flights operate this week before the February 24 cancellation completes Russia’s aviation withdrawal. Only Iberia maintains scheduled commercial service (Madrid–Havana). Air Canada remains suspended through at least May.
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Why It Matters
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The Bloomberg satellite study transformed the Cuba crisis from anecdotal reporting into quantifiable evidence visible to international audiences. A 50% reduction in nighttime light is the kind of metric that moves institutional assessments and humanitarian responses. The Havana-province divergence also reveals a political calculation: the regime is protecting the capital—where organized dissent is most dangerous—at the expense of provincial populations. For BRICS partners, Cuba’s crisis is becoming a credibility test: if the bloc cannot rally behind a partner country in acute distress, its value as an alternative to Western institutions diminishes. Analysts estimate available reserves could cover less than 20 days of consumption.
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Key Watch
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Whether any tanker deliveries materialize this week. Aeroflot final flights before Feb 24 cutoff. Social unrest indicators in eastern provinces. BRICS response. U.S. policy signals beyond the January 29 executive order. Migration pressure on Florida, Mexico, and the Caribbean.
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RISK: CRITICAL
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Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
+1.85%
171,031.73
+1.85%
65,223.89
+1.36%
11,338.38
+0.89%
2,913,184
+1.30%
2,459.23
+0.61%
58,698.13
+2.60%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,031.73 | +1.85% | +21.85% | 167,927.15 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,338.38 | +0.89% | — | 11,237.90 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 65,223.89 | +1.36% | +12.17% | 64,349.80 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,913,184 | +1.30% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,459.23 | +0.61% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 58,698.13 | +2.60% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
Venezuela
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Hunger Strikers Weaken on Day Four as Amnesty Debate Looms Wednesday
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What Happened
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- —Strikers Deteriorating: AFP reported Monday that the dozen female hunger strikers outside Zona 7 are visibly weakening after three days without food. Evelin Quiaro, 46, asked from her mattress: “How long? How long are they going to leave us like this?” A volunteer doctor, Rafael Arreaza, warned that fasting in open-air conditions without medical supervision is dangerous. The women have been sleeping outside the prison since January 8—over five weeks—and the hunger strike began Saturday after the latest amnesty postponement.
- —Amnesty Timeline: The National Assembly is expected to resume debate on the amnesty bill Wednesday February 19. The bill covers charges of “treason,” “terrorism,” and “hate” used against dissidents over 27 years of Chavista rule. The sticking point remains whether beneficiaries must appear in court to request amnesty—a procedure opposition lawmakers call a “humiliation clause.” Foro Penal’s count: 444 freed since January 8, more than 600 remaining.
- —Distrust Growing: Some hunger strikers are openly questioning whether the Rodríguez government intends to honor its commitments. The regime is composed of Maduro loyalists who remain in power only because Washington calculated that a gradual transition would produce more stability than immediate regime change. The gap between promises and performance—Jorge Rodríguez pledged all prisoners freed by February 13, a deadline now four days past—is eroding the credibility that Washington’s strategy depends on.
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Why It Matters
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The hunger strike is a slow-burning pressure test for the Rodriguez government. Each day the women stay outside Zona 7 without resolution, the narrative shifts further from “orderly transition” to “broken promises.” Wednesday’s amnesty debate carries weight beyond Venezuela: it signals whether the post-Maduro political architecture can deliver on its foundational commitment. For Washington, the stakes are strategic—a stalled amnesty undermines the case that U.S. intervention produced a better outcome for Venezuelan civil liberties.
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Key Watch
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Wednesday amnesty vote outcome. Hunger strikers’ medical condition. Whether releases accelerate before the debate. U.S. State Department positioning. Oil production restart trajectory under sanctions relief.
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RISK: HIGH
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Regional Snapshot
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Colombia
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Flood emergency across 16 departments persists with Urrá I reservoir above overflow level. Toll steady at 44 dead, 72,000+ families. The $2.2 billion emergency tax faces corporate pushback ahead of March 8 elections. Ecuador trade war (week 3): reciprocal 30% tariffs, 900% pipeline surcharge, and electricity suspension all remain in force. COLCAP closed Friday at 2,368.57 (+1.73%).
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Mexico
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The 40-hour workweek reform is now in Deputies committees after the Senate passed it 121–0 on February 11. Plenary vote expected February 24–25. Gradual rollout: 48 hours through 2026, reducing to 40 by 2030. No wage cuts permitted. USMCA review begins July 1. BMV was the only major LatAm exchange operating Monday; IPC closed Friday at 71,478.81 (+0.83%).
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Brazil
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Carnival continues through Ash Wednesday. Sambaódromo Special Group parades conclude tonight; Champions Parade February 21. Brazil’s first-ever Winter Olympics gold medal (Lucas Pinheiro Braathen, giant slalom, Milan-Cortina) dominates cultural coverage. Election polling remains tight: Lula 37%, Flávio Bolsonaro 33%. B3 dark through Tuesday for Carnival. Ibovespa closed Friday at 186,464.30 (−0.69%).
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Chile
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Kast inauguration March 11 remains the key political horizon. Bachelet’s UN Secretary-General candidacy continues to gather support. Santiago exchange was open Monday. IPSA closed Friday at 10,897.74 (−0.70%).
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Markets at a Glance
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| Index | Level | Daily Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 186,464.30 | −0.69% (Fri) | B3 dark Mon–Tue (Carnival). Reopens Wed. |
| MERVAL | 2,816,127.94 | −1.25% (Fri) | BYMA dark Mon–Tue (Carnival). Reopens Wed. |
| IPC | 71,478.81 | +0.83% (Fri) | BMV only major LatAm exchange open Mon. |
| COLCAP | 2,368.57 | +1.73% (Fri) | BVC open Mon. Flood emergency ongoing. |
| IPSA | 10,897.74 | −0.70% (Fri) | BCS open Mon. |
| S&P 500 | 6,114.63 | +1.04% (Fri) | NYSE dark Mon (Presidents’ Day). Reopens Tue. |
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Holiday Lockdown
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Three of the hemisphere’s four largest equity markets were closed Monday: NYSE (Presidents’ Day), B3 (Carnival), and BYMA (Carnival). B3 and BYMA remain closed Tuesday. Mexico’s BMV and Colombia’s BVC operated normally Monday. NYSE reopens Tuesday, B3 and BYMA Wednesday. The FOMC minutes release Wednesday will be the first actionable signal since the CPI beat (2.4% YoY, 2.5% core—both below consensus). Positions taken before Friday’s close face the widest liquidity gap of 2026.
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The Week Ahead
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| Date | Event | Significance |
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| Tue Feb 18 | NYSE reopens; B3/BYMA still dark | Partial liquidity return; U.S. markets digest Presidents’ Day gap |
| Wed Feb 19 | B3 and BYMA reopen; FOMC minutes; Venezuela amnesty debate | Full LatAm liquidity restored. First rate signal since CPI beat. Amnesty outcome shapes Venezuela trajectory |
| Thu Feb 19 | Argentina CGT general strike + Deputies labor reform vote + Board of Peace summit (Washington) | Binary event day: passage = deepest reform in 50 yrs; failure = mandate limits exposed. Milei in Washington during shutdown |
| Feb 24 | Aeroflot cancels all Cuba service | Russia’s aviation withdrawal complete |
| Feb 24–25 | Mexico Deputies vote on 40-hr workweek | Morena supermajority makes passage near-certain; USMCA implications |
| Feb 28 | Argentina extraordinary sessions deadline | Last day for labor reform without new session call |
| Mar 1 | Argentina ordinary sessions open; Milei address | Policy agenda for 2026; reform scorecard |
| Mar 7 | Trump Latin American presidents’ summit (Miami) | Milei, Peña, Paz, Bukele, Noboa, Asfura |
| Mar 8 | Colombia legislative elections | Petro’s coalition tested amid flood emergency |
| Mar 11 | Kast inauguration (Chile) | Cabinet composition; policy direction |
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Related: Brazil Morning Call | Global Economy Briefing
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