Brazil’s Bovespa rose 0.78% to 141,783.36 on Monday, joining a global relief rally after Washington dialed back its toughest language on China.
The softer rhetoric eased fears from last week’s tariff shock and nudged investors back into risk, while oil prices recovered and the real firmed. Cash turnover on B3 reached R$14.67 billion ($2.77 billion).
The story behind the move is twofold: abroad, the prospect of de-escalation in U.S.–China tensions revived appetite for cyclicals; at home, inflation expectations improved and local rates edged down, taking pressure off equity valuations.
The Central Bank’s Focus survey trimmed the median 2025 inflation call to 4.72% (2026 at 4.28%). Interest-rate futures eased along the curve—Jan-28 DI at 13.415%, Jan-29 at 13.39%, Jan-35 at 13.815%—with markets leaning toward a Selic hold at 15% in early November.
Meanwhile, USD/BRL hovered near 5.46 and Brent settled around $63. Cyclical heavyweights led: China’s September iron-ore imports hit a monthly record, lifting demand expectations for Brazilian miners and steel.
The session’s top five winners were Usiminas (+6.35%), CSN (+6.32%), Braskem (+3.99%), Gerdau (+2.13%), and Vale (+1.49%). The five biggest laggards were Marfrig (−4.16%), GPA (−3.03%), Assaí (−2.07%), Raízen (−2.03%), and Minerva (−1.07%).
Protein producers underperformed on concerns about U.S. beef margins and normalizing poultry spreads in Brazil; GPA reflected ongoing governance changes; Raízen extended a recent slide.
The technical backdrop is constructive but fragile. On the 4-hour chart, the index is hugging the lower Bollinger band after slipping from a short up-channel, with RSI in the low-40s—often a setup for a mean-reversion bounce if sellers tire.
On the daily chart, Ibovespa still trends above the long-term line (200-day near 133k), yet momentum has cooled: RSI sits mid-range and the MACD histogram has faded through October.
A sustained close back above roughly 142.7k–143k would reopen the path to recent highs; slipping below ~140.7k would risk a test of the high-139k zone.
What to watch today: whether oil’s rebound holds, any fresh signals on U.S.–China engagement, and early read-throughs from U.S. bank earnings to global credit and risk appetite.